Investing in Copper theme-Hindustan Copper Ltd

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और दुसरो को भी भेजीये,  जो नीवेष करने के लिए इच्छुक है

Why I bought Hindustan Copper:

Last time we spoke on technical Breakout at 95 for short term to medium term gains in Hindustan Copper.  One can go through the link if interested

http://jttime.blogspot.in/2017/12/breakout-in-hind-copper.html

Here we I am discussing exactly why I bought Hindustan Copper even before that Breakout

To profit from Commodity,  one need to understand Commodity sector which always works on cycle. Rising copper prices is the primary trigger.  Once trend is confirmed,  metal Miner starts opening up shut down mines or expansion is planned for taking advantage of price rise. This time, copper cycle is supported by EV boom which makes it lucrative for this uptrend to continue for long term. Whatever we are buying now is actually bottom price. One can also look at Vedanta (Copper Miner in Africa and smelter in India). Though Vedanta have additional advantage of Oil &  gas,  Iron Ore,  Aluminum etc. It can be discussed separately.


Latest Update on Hindustan Copper:
Kendadih Copper Mine at Ghatsila, Jharkhand has been reopened on 11.12.2017 upon commencement of development activities at the mine


Keep following check lists handy for your investment rationale in Hindustan Copper.

• Copper prices up from 4000 to 7500 within few months and still uptrend
• Hindustan Copper have planned 3 times capacity expansions by 2018-2019
• Only Miner owning all Copper mines in India

Also, I would like you all to please go through following links to understand Copper theme(Not Indian but worth reading)

https://katusaresearch.com/copper-stocks-easily-rise-10-fold-current-levels/




Already ran from 60 to 100 but still long way to go

Happy Investing 💸💸💸💸💸💸💸

RCI Industries - Growth pick

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Company in discussion is recommended by my stock market guru Research Wings.

Rationale for picking this story:

Company who came from BSE SME to BSE Main and now from low margin trading firm to manufacturing firm, RCI industries have exhibited excellent growth path.

On going 80 Crores capex for enhancing capacity of which 49 Crores met from preferential allotment from Promoters and remaining out of internal accruals

Talking about 3 divisions of the company :

Copper trading - 

Low margins business

Round products - 

Medium margin business, current capacity at 24000MT from 20000MT in FY2017

Flat Products - 

High margin business,  acquired 2400MT capacity Devi Metals,  ongoing capex for 6000MT by FY2018 &  24000MT by FY2019

Company focus is shifting from trading to high margin flat products manufacturing business and hence highlighted


Previous closing price is ₹249.45 and I bought today at ₹246 in my personal portfolio.


Comparing it with peers Precision Wires and Ram Ratna wires(Don't go with peers given on screener.in or other websites as automated websites will give peers in commodity trading and as discussed above, RCI has now become Copper ancillary manufacturer as primary business) ,  inspite of excellent growth on cards,  it's still undervalued.  Such stocks are typical hidden gems,  otherwise growth stocks usually demands higher valuation if information is widespread in the market.


Checking the company on charts

As We can see from the chart,  on account of previous growth,  stock has given good rally after getting in from BSE SME to BSE Main and is in consolidation for complete year when capex is ongoing.  This chart pattern looks similar to cup and handle where rally is succeeded by consolidation (cup)  and on the verge of Breakout (handle)


Recent Volumes spurt also supports the price trend.  Now only wait is for a massive Breakout at 52week high after which many analysts will start giving calls but we have grabbed it when it's sleeping. 

Short sell Trade idea

With open high same today even in such a strong opening of market,  Hindalco looks for a short candidate with SL of 278.5 which is upper Bollinger and also near yesterday's high. Its an opportunity for double top in Hindalco.  Strong support looks near 50Moving Average i.e. 257. Which can be a target for Jan Expiry. Previous trading price is around 274 which gives a very good risk reward ratio for traders

Breakout in Hind Copper

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https://youtu.be/DnVbWV3XMGc

YouTube के इस लिंक मे हिंदी मे जाने,  क्यो नीवेष करना है हिंदुस्थान काॅपर मे

और दुसरो को भी भेजीये,  जो नीवेष करने के लिए इच्छुक है

Traders active on Social Media might have observed so many Hind Copper Flag pole/Pennant charts even before breakout. Now that breakout have actually happened due to China news of copper production shut down, copper prices have gone up, thereby pushing Hindustan copper prices up.

Traders curios to learn this pattern for trading purpose can go through charts as follows.

Beginners need not worry about whether it is flag or Pennant, I have showed the basic Pennant and Flag pole on the chart and individual traders and Investors can decide on their own as whatever they want to consider. Important is to find pole high to calculate target for fresh rally. in this case, first breakout happened at around 60 and then at 70 it was massive volume breakout which formed the base for the Pennant. Previous rally was from 70 to 110 giving us 40 points and now fresh breakout happened at 95 giving us opportunity for riding this rally upto 135.




Though I have not bought this for technical reasons, but my personal buying happened at around 86(Missed at 60) to ride on copper Cycle, which is a fundamental reason. I have shared the fundamental reason on another post.  Click here to read fundamental reasons. This post is for the traders who wish to learn application of strategies with live charts and want to play short term.



Investors who wished to understand why I personally bought Hindustan Copper,  please click on following link

http://jttime.blogspot.in/2018/01/investing-in-copper-theme-hindustan.html


Happy Investing

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Transformers update

Transformers play important rule in electrification and with central government aggressively working on rural electrification,  we see sudden demand for Transformers among Indian players with Bharat Bijlee and TRIL (Transformers and Rectifiers India Limited)

If you see order books of both,  it has recorded historically strong order books this year and expected to grow even more next year.  Voltamp on the other side have dissappointed in terms of order book. FY2018 seems to be dull period for it,  and expecting spike in FY2019.  Need to keep watch on volumes to see any potential in Voltamp.

Already initiated Transformers sector and updated once for dissappointing Q2FY18 results of TRIL.  But still have good hopes to show strong results in Q3 & Q4FY2018

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Transformers demand update - TRIL

TRIL results dissappointed

With historically strong order books in hand,  such low volume business was not expected giving excuse of overhead costs absorption.  Company was busy in third party exports sales and diverted from their own dispatches.  Expecting gap down or LC series.

Order book in hand w.e.f. 1st November 2017 is 833 Crores ₹ where full year sales FY2017  was 802.24 Crores ₹.  So it clearly indicates operations issue. But still have faith that if orders executed on time,  will see a big leap in FY2018 results



Happy Investing