Short sell Trade idea

With open high same today even in such a strong opening of market,  Hindalco looks for a short candidate with SL of 278.5 which is upper Bollinger and also near yesterday's high. Its an opportunity for double top in Hindalco.  Strong support looks near 50Moving Average i.e. 257. Which can be a target for Jan Expiry. Previous trading price is around 274 which gives a very good risk reward ratio for traders

Breakout in Hind Copper

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https://youtu.be/DnVbWV3XMGc

YouTube के इस लिंक मे हिंदी मे जाने,  क्यो नीवेष करना है हिंदुस्थान काॅपर मे

और दुसरो को भी भेजीये,  जो नीवेष करने के लिए इच्छुक है

Traders active on Social Media might have observed so many Hind Copper Flag pole/Pennant charts even before breakout. Now that breakout have actually happened due to China news of copper production shut down, copper prices have gone up, thereby pushing Hindustan copper prices up.

Traders curios to learn this pattern for trading purpose can go through charts as follows.

Beginners need not worry about whether it is flag or Pennant, I have showed the basic Pennant and Flag pole on the chart and individual traders and Investors can decide on their own as whatever they want to consider. Important is to find pole high to calculate target for fresh rally. in this case, first breakout happened at around 60 and then at 70 it was massive volume breakout which formed the base for the Pennant. Previous rally was from 70 to 110 giving us 40 points and now fresh breakout happened at 95 giving us opportunity for riding this rally upto 135.




Though I have not bought this for technical reasons, but my personal buying happened at around 86(Missed at 60) to ride on copper Cycle, which is a fundamental reason. I have shared the fundamental reason on another post.  Click here to read fundamental reasons. This post is for the traders who wish to learn application of strategies with live charts and want to play short term.



Investors who wished to understand why I personally bought Hindustan Copper,  please click on following link

http://jttime.blogspot.in/2018/01/investing-in-copper-theme-hindustan.html


Happy Investing

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Have created Twitter accounts for share market.  Interested people can follow me👆🏼

Transformers update

Transformers play important rule in electrification and with central government aggressively working on rural electrification,  we see sudden demand for Transformers among Indian players with Bharat Bijlee and TRIL (Transformers and Rectifiers India Limited)

If you see order books of both,  it has recorded historically strong order books this year and expected to grow even more next year.  Voltamp on the other side have dissappointed in terms of order book. FY2018 seems to be dull period for it,  and expecting spike in FY2019.  Need to keep watch on volumes to see any potential in Voltamp.

Already initiated Transformers sector and updated once for dissappointing Q2FY18 results of TRIL.  But still have good hopes to show strong results in Q3 & Q4FY2018

#JTtime.blogspot.com

Happy Investing 💸💸💸💸💸💸💸

Transformers demand update - TRIL

TRIL results dissappointed

With historically strong order books in hand,  such low volume business was not expected giving excuse of overhead costs absorption.  Company was busy in third party exports sales and diverted from their own dispatches.  Expecting gap down or LC series.

Order book in hand w.e.f. 1st November 2017 is 833 Crores ₹ where full year sales FY2017  was 802.24 Crores ₹.  So it clearly indicates operations issue. But still have faith that if orders executed on time,  will see a big leap in FY2018 results



Happy Investing 

Navin Fluorine - Value pick

Last closing price at around 700
Strong uptrending share,  right now at bottom of channel as can be seen on chart.

It's on good support  even for Positional traders and can be bought at CMP with SL just below 100 MA of 679 and target of new 52 week high.  

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It's a good pick also for investors.  Following are few trigger points for investors to keep Navin Fluorine in their portfolio 

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1) See the Debt reduction pattern.  It's on continuous declining trend suggesting companies strong growth path. 

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2) Sudden jump in Fixed Assets figures indicating some investment on company for expansion

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3) Even Cash flow suggests companies investment in FY2017 and it also indicates strong growth in cash flow from operations. Generally such growth happens when payment cycle or income realization time reduces.  For your information,  first line a over suggests cash flow from operations,  i.e. Their main business or say by selling products.  Second line indicates cash flow from investing.  It's showing - 159.29 Crores indicating companies investment.  Negative sign indicates outflow of cash.  

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Also,  If we see the trend in Ratios,  all are on increasing trend.  Check following ratios for your references.  Trend in ROE, ROA,  ROCE and interest cover.  And you will observe how this company is fairing well in all parameters. About this ratios,  we will cover separately about the importance of it.  I am not giving this ratios here to spoon feed readers.  Most of the screenshots are presented here.  For remaining,  terms are mentioned,  investors just needs to take efforts to check those trends by either manually calculating or any websites giving readymade data.  

Remember,  Learn to Fish yourself.  That's the key to be successful investor 

Happy Investing 💸💸💸💸💸💸💸

Latest Theme - Transformers in demand

There is a sudden spike in demand for Transformers.  Expecting all Transformer companies to deliver awesome results this Quarter on account of this sudden jump in Order books of all Transformer manufacturers.  Order book value is at all time high for few.

Companies to look for
1) TRIL (31.75₹) sleeping tiger
2) IMP Power (105₹) already big Breakout
3) Bharat Bijlee (1000₹) sleeping tiger
4) Voltamp (1148.05₹)


Short term traders can look at Bharat Bijlee and TRIL


Investors can look at Voltamp.  Voltamp right now is at sweet spot and very small downside potential from here, as it's on strong 200Moving Average Support.
Fundamentally it has decent ratios among its peers.  Top of it,  Voltamp is debt free. For order books,  Highest beneficiaries are Bharat Bijlee and TRIL.  Voltamp may show subdued results this FY2018. Hence its low momentum in share price makes it unattractive for traders too. 

BGR Energy - A value buy

After Panic selling in market,  many investors are looking for value buy like HEG,  Graphite,  HFCL , etc.  I personally bought BGR energy at 132.30 today



I found this stock to be at demand zone, good price according to me and this years order book have rose 10 times compared to previous year,  hoping to reap benefits by March 18 results


Happy Investing 

Aug 2017 Trade updates

During the panic selling ,  it was difficult to see bullish stocks and we had selected ITC and Tech M with decent risk reward. Fortunately ,  even after panic selling continuation,  Both SL stayed safe and Tech M achieved it's target,  while ITC gave 13 points.  Even bad news for ITC couldn't drag it much down.  It just gave a jerk.


Following is the link for Trade idea A

https://jttime.blogspot.in/2017/08/aug-2017-trade-ideas-a.html?m=1

Fresh idea

One can look to buy CARE rating,  which is beaten down to its demand zone and around 200MA.

Updates for Nifty View

After a pullback which gave a good relief rally,  we were anticipating it as a short relief and expecting 9930 as resistance,  Nifty couldn't sustain above 9930 for long and made high of around 9940 and still consolidating.  As for expected it was not a bull back but just a pullback.  Our stand will still remain bullish above 9930 & below 9600, we may turn bearish for medium term period. So our view is still intact.

Following is the link for Nifty View August Expiry

https://jttime.blogspot.in/2017/08/august-nifty-view-b.html?m=1

This pullback relief was anticipated just 1 day before Nifty started upwards journey, but ultimately it's just a speculation which went right this time again and nobody can Predict Market.



Happy Trading 📈📈

August Nifty View - B

Nifty on Support

After the panic selling in Nifty, many articles coming in to prove as Nifty is on support or major global incides on Support. Lets look at exactly what is this 61.8% support by illustrations and various other supports

Blue dotted lines are various Fibboncci retracement levels, for which most of the analysts considers calculating from Jun Low to August High. 61.8% is called as golden ratio and therefore its generally accepted that Nifty will bounce back from current levels and buying can resume. Also, previous resistance which Nifty broke with decent volumes has now become support for which few analysts can also term it as trendline support. We have also witnessed sharp recoveries near end of market hours in back to back last 2 trading sessions. After looking at FIIs figures, it looked like it was a short covering.
Interestingly, Nifty earlier closed at 23.6%, expecting a bounce back, but it opened with a gap down and sell off continued. Next to that day, Nifty opened at 38.2% Retracement levels and closed at 50% retracement levels giving a hope to traders with long position that now it will bounce back. Now, its a new ratio which is also a golden ratio creating hopes for the traders with a long positon.

Moving Average:

Nifty has been consistently taking support on Moving average lines of 20 MA and in the Month of June, it broke that support temporarily and after long, tested 50MA Support. But in recent sell off, Nifty broke that support too and even went below Lower band of Bollinger. This indicates that sell off is not yet over and may test 100MA soon. For time being as all global sentiments have turned positive, even SGX was green in last trading sessions, and most importantly, Nifty on Golden ratio of retracement levels of the latest Rally, it may be give a pullback, which should not be considered as bull back immediately. It is only after Nifty crosses and sustains above previous rally resistance of 9930, we must keep patience for any fresh longs. Till then, its a sell on rise market.


RSI at 36.30 facing southwards is also a worry for market.

Aug 2017 - Trade Ideas A

FINDING BUYING OPPORTUNITIES IN MASSIVE SELLING 

Sellers were highly active today but in the last 30 minutes,  massive buying observed which took Nifty from low of 9803.55 to 9878. Volumes suggests last hour spike can be sustainable and can be considered Short covering.  Even FIIs data suggests,  FIIs bought net index Futures and Stock Futures,  which actually happened in last 30 minutes.  With such panic selling,  one may consider to take short positions,  but for traders who always look for buying opportunities in the market or value buying might be either panic or might be thinking to value buy in such market.  My personal suggestion to such investor would be to analyze results before jumping in to any decision.  One such example is Tata Motors,  where many investors considered it as a value buy as it has come near 52 week low,  but after going through results,  one should understand that profit jump that one can see on their P&L statement is due to one time gain and not due to their regular business.  Even Tata Steel sold their holdings in Tata Motors which suggests its not a value buy still.  

Now for traders comfortable with long side in FO

1) 

Even in today's panic selling,  IT sector looked like strongly holding its stand and in that too particularly I expect Tech Mahindra to perform better among its peers.  Even open low was same today. 

Buy Tech Mahindra 

Prev close 404

Target 435

SL 392

2)

Another stock that is beaten down badly due to negative news &  came on strong support is ITC.  It's on 200MA and showed good strength even in today's massive fall.  Risk reward ratio also looks good

Buy ITC 

Prev close 273

Target 295

SL 268

Picking the growth stock - Bang Overseas

Bang Overseas

Previous closing - Rs. 45.70/-
Market Cap - 61.97 Crores
Stock P/E - 10.70
FV - 10


Company deals with exports of Mens wear. Thomas Scott, Bang Europa, etc. are their brands. Company sources processed fabric from their vendors and have their own stitching units, Headquartered at Mumbai. As with others, company sales was beaten down badly in 2008 and coudnt recover until recently. FY2015-16 witnessed a complete turnaround for the company and now company is on growth track again. Year 2007-2008 also witnessed such growth for the company when their Stock tripled in a short time. Steep fall after recession and then made failed attempt to recover in 2011. Stock has recently started gaining Volumes and already doubled within a short period. With decent promoter Holdings of 72.98%, and EPS growth consistency from last 3 quarters, stock looks fairly priced at 10 PE. FY2016 EPS was at 0.86 and FY2017 have already crossed 4.

Volume breakout on charts also shows investors confidence on growth of the Bang Overseas. Now, with the march Quarter, investors should keep a watch on EPS jump for full year.

To buy this stock at support, one can wait for the stock to come in 37-40 Band.

Interestingly, Stock have also crossed 200 Moving average on weekly chart which it couldn't succeed during 2011 attempt

This post was just a trailer to show turnaround. We will discuss on how to pick turnaround stories at the right time.

IVP limited - fresh multibagger stock idea

Buy IVP limited

New multibagger suggestion in our Kitty

Prev closing @28th Feb 2017 is ₹134.60
Promoter Holdings 70.86%
PE 11.94
Market cap 128.14 Cr.
Listed on both. BSE, NSE
Zero debt now
Up trending stock with excellent Breakout


Happy investing💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸

Picking small cap for the target of large cap

Hi Friends,

This is Jeevraj and back with the new investment idea. Many of us have a wish to invest a big chunk at very bottom or small cap company which will be a large cap tomorrow or at-least a mid cap, then it can be a life changing experience. Well finding such stock needs understanding business and its promoters to the core. Its a risk, but if you find such business, it needs courage to invest in such stocks. Lets look at one imaginary example below.

Mr. X starts business. Invests 5000₹, purchased machines worth ₹2000, raw material worth ₹1200. Sells final products at ₹1800. Now cash in hand will be ₹3600. In the first month, Balance sheet looks like loss of ₹1400. 

Second month, purchased raw material worth ₹1500 and sells it at ₹2250. Now ₹750 profit in second month. But still, ₹650 loss overall.

Mr. X got big orders worth ₹5000. He hired labour at ₹4000/month. Raw material costs ₹4000, sold total material worth ₹6000. Now additional loss of ₹2000. 

Looking at the Balance sheet of Mr. X, anybody will consider it as a Junk company & investors will stay away. Such companies if listed On stock exchanges, will be low volume stocks.

What if you get the opportunity to invests in such business??? What if you know that company is in aggressive growth path and its just the start or say gestation period. Investing in any company in their gestation period is a high risk high reward game. Finding such companies for investment is not so easy and it needs thorough study to find and invests in such business. But if you find it, just have one check on promoters to see how much they are aggressive towards the growth of the company. Once that is done, you have a gold mine.

One such example was already discussed on this Blog. Its Vakrangee. Though Vakrangee is an old business but their franchise model is a new business model and was in gestation period when we identified. And the result is multi-fold returns with in short time.

Now here we came up with the new idea of investing. Name of the company is India Home loans Ltd. At present, it looks like company is not appealing by looking at its numbers. Price to sales ratio is very high. Other Assets is just less than 40 crores. Even recently, financing cost of the company have increased as evident from the companies annual report. But if you observe the trend, company is growing aggressively. Their operating profit increased from 0.57>>>>0.87>>>>>1.05>>>>>2.48>>>>>>3.08. (2013 to TTM). Also for borrowings and other Assets, its a continuous rising trend recently. 2014 to 2016.

Operating profit increased over the year

Other assets, borrowing and reserves increased

But above points are just minuscule which doesn't gives idea of the future direction. Such points does not convince we as an investor to hold big chunks in small cap and hope for it to become large cap. Spice of the such business is what promoters are thinking and what they are planning for the company. Lets dive into promoters arena

If you observe at shareholding pattern(SHP) and just have a glance, it looks like promoters have decreased their shares.

SHP from BSEindia.com

But just download the SHP PDF to see the details of public portion. You will observe that public includes corporate and JM Financials.

http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/shpPublicShareholder.aspx?scripcd=530979&qtrid=92.00&QtrName=December%202016

Now company who handled loans books of ₹10-20 crores till now, will be targetting ₹100+ crores soon and ₹1000+ crores in long term. It will be operating in same segment as DHFL(affordable housing loans for middle class). For JM Financials, it will be like business is not yet started. It will scale up the business to a new height. Additionally, Modi scheme announced on 31st December night and with Pradhan mantri Aawaas yojna, India Home loans Ltd will get a big boost to their loan book. So for investors it will be like boarding in passenger train, On which maximum people avoid to travel as it halts at all stations and goes very slow and suddenly in the journey train rides like a bullet train. What a delightful experience it will be. Same way India Home loans is like business of Mr. X, who is struggling to show real profits on books, but once it manages it to scale up the business, it will be money printing machine. Dont worry about accounting numbers at this stage and all the valuations stuff. My opinion is, stock is available at throw away price.

If you see on charts, volumes started picking up immediately after JM Financials took stake and gave a big breakout. Volumes gained that time is still sustained and retail investors have started eyeing on it.

For JM Financials, stock is already doubled on the News of their entry. Its time for company to perform. So buy the passenger train ticket, fasten your seat belts by boarding in passenger train and enjoy the ride of bullet train.

Note: Rome was not built in a day, so once invested in long term scrip, have patience and wait for the company to grow. Just have conviction on management. Read More on them to get confidence. Confirm the mentioned story by yourself and dont just buy shares because somebody is saying. It will give you more conviction to hold shares even during panic situations

Bottom line for investors:You are buying a loan disbursing company with a loan book of ₹30+ crores and in the hope of loan book amount to reach ₹1000+ Crores

JM Financials here will be like

"Abhi toh Maine start bhi nahi Kiya hai"

Happy investing 

GHCL- New value pick from JTtime

Hi Friends,

Welcome back to the JTtime

After Demonization, I was bit quite on investment decisions as it had spread panic among investors. But it did not took much time to recover back and market looks bullish

Let's look at new stock for value pick- GHCL

Stock price bounced back from 200 EMA. And looks like, it is set to head for new high. Volumes looks bit dry after Demonization. Volumes are needed for non stop rally as it had before.

Fundamental numbers



Market Cap.: ₹ 2,719.04 Cr.
Current Price: ₹ 271.85
Book Value: ₹ 117.83
Stock P/E: 7.98
Dividend Yield: 1.29%
Face Value: ₹ 10
52 Week High/Low: ₹ 299 / ₹ 95.35
Dividend in Rs: 2.2
EPS: ₹ 33.83
Latest Annualized Cost of Equity: 54.23%
Latest Annualized Return on Equity: 46.64%
Cost of Equity based on Price to Earning Ratio: 52.81%

Above numbers indicates sound fundamentals. With Face Value 10, and stock PE under 8, it looks undervalued

Sustainable Growth Rate: 47.94%
Retention Based Growth Rate: 40.28%
Profit growth: 65.05%
QoQ Profits: -12.2%
YOY Quarterly profit growth: 83.55%
Profit growth 3Years: 21.89%
Sales growth: 8.24%
Sales growth 3Years: 6.39%
Debt to equity: 1.27
Return on capital employed: 25.2%
Enterprise Value to Sales: 1.48
Expected Dividend Next Year: ₹ 6.47


This second set of numbers indicates decent growth year on year. And its still on growth path


So, a stock with good set of numbers and growth story is a decent candidate for investment. My personal opinion for investors would be to book few stocks at around 400


Happy Investing💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸