Aug 2017 Trade updates

During the panic selling ,  it was difficult to see bullish stocks and we had selected ITC and Tech M with decent risk reward. Fortunately ,  even after panic selling continuation,  Both SL stayed safe and Tech M achieved it's target,  while ITC gave 13 points.  Even bad news for ITC couldn't drag it much down.  It just gave a jerk.


Following is the link for Trade idea A

https://jttime.blogspot.in/2017/08/aug-2017-trade-ideas-a.html?m=1

Fresh idea

One can look to buy CARE rating,  which is beaten down to its demand zone and around 200MA.

Updates for Nifty View

After a pullback which gave a good relief rally,  we were anticipating it as a short relief and expecting 9930 as resistance,  Nifty couldn't sustain above 9930 for long and made high of around 9940 and still consolidating.  As for expected it was not a bull back but just a pullback.  Our stand will still remain bullish above 9930 & below 9600, we may turn bearish for medium term period. So our view is still intact.

Following is the link for Nifty View August Expiry

https://jttime.blogspot.in/2017/08/august-nifty-view-b.html?m=1

This pullback relief was anticipated just 1 day before Nifty started upwards journey, but ultimately it's just a speculation which went right this time again and nobody can Predict Market.



Happy Trading 📈📈

August Nifty View - B

Nifty on Support

After the panic selling in Nifty, many articles coming in to prove as Nifty is on support or major global incides on Support. Lets look at exactly what is this 61.8% support by illustrations and various other supports

Blue dotted lines are various Fibboncci retracement levels, for which most of the analysts considers calculating from Jun Low to August High. 61.8% is called as golden ratio and therefore its generally accepted that Nifty will bounce back from current levels and buying can resume. Also, previous resistance which Nifty broke with decent volumes has now become support for which few analysts can also term it as trendline support. We have also witnessed sharp recoveries near end of market hours in back to back last 2 trading sessions. After looking at FIIs figures, it looked like it was a short covering.
Interestingly, Nifty earlier closed at 23.6%, expecting a bounce back, but it opened with a gap down and sell off continued. Next to that day, Nifty opened at 38.2% Retracement levels and closed at 50% retracement levels giving a hope to traders with long position that now it will bounce back. Now, its a new ratio which is also a golden ratio creating hopes for the traders with a long positon.

Moving Average:

Nifty has been consistently taking support on Moving average lines of 20 MA and in the Month of June, it broke that support temporarily and after long, tested 50MA Support. But in recent sell off, Nifty broke that support too and even went below Lower band of Bollinger. This indicates that sell off is not yet over and may test 100MA soon. For time being as all global sentiments have turned positive, even SGX was green in last trading sessions, and most importantly, Nifty on Golden ratio of retracement levels of the latest Rally, it may be give a pullback, which should not be considered as bull back immediately. It is only after Nifty crosses and sustains above previous rally resistance of 9930, we must keep patience for any fresh longs. Till then, its a sell on rise market.


RSI at 36.30 facing southwards is also a worry for market.

Aug 2017 - Trade Ideas A

FINDING BUYING OPPORTUNITIES IN MASSIVE SELLING 

Sellers were highly active today but in the last 30 minutes,  massive buying observed which took Nifty from low of 9803.55 to 9878. Volumes suggests last hour spike can be sustainable and can be considered Short covering.  Even FIIs data suggests,  FIIs bought net index Futures and Stock Futures,  which actually happened in last 30 minutes.  With such panic selling,  one may consider to take short positions,  but for traders who always look for buying opportunities in the market or value buying might be either panic or might be thinking to value buy in such market.  My personal suggestion to such investor would be to analyze results before jumping in to any decision.  One such example is Tata Motors,  where many investors considered it as a value buy as it has come near 52 week low,  but after going through results,  one should understand that profit jump that one can see on their P&L statement is due to one time gain and not due to their regular business.  Even Tata Steel sold their holdings in Tata Motors which suggests its not a value buy still.  

Now for traders comfortable with long side in FO

1) 

Even in today's panic selling,  IT sector looked like strongly holding its stand and in that too particularly I expect Tech Mahindra to perform better among its peers.  Even open low was same today. 

Buy Tech Mahindra 

Prev close 404

Target 435

SL 392

2)

Another stock that is beaten down badly due to negative news &  came on strong support is ITC.  It's on 200MA and showed good strength even in today's massive fall.  Risk reward ratio also looks good

Buy ITC 

Prev close 273

Target 295

SL 268