Transformers demand update - TRIL

TRIL results dissappointed

With historically strong order books in hand,  such low volume business was not expected giving excuse of overhead costs absorption.  Company was busy in third party exports sales and diverted from their own dispatches.  Expecting gap down or LC series.

Order book in hand w.e.f. 1st November 2017 is 833 Crores ₹ where full year sales FY2017  was 802.24 Crores ₹.  So it clearly indicates operations issue. But still have faith that if orders executed on time,  will see a big leap in FY2018 results



Happy Investing 

Navin Fluorine - Value pick

Last closing price at around 700
Strong uptrending share,  right now at bottom of channel as can be seen on chart.

It's on good support  even for Positional traders and can be bought at CMP with SL just below 100 MA of 679 and target of new 52 week high.  

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It's a good pick also for investors.  Following are few trigger points for investors to keep Navin Fluorine in their portfolio 

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1) See the Debt reduction pattern.  It's on continuous declining trend suggesting companies strong growth path. 

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2) Sudden jump in Fixed Assets figures indicating some investment on company for expansion

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3) Even Cash flow suggests companies investment in FY2017 and it also indicates strong growth in cash flow from operations. Generally such growth happens when payment cycle or income realization time reduces.  For your information,  first line a over suggests cash flow from operations,  i.e. Their main business or say by selling products.  Second line indicates cash flow from investing.  It's showing - 159.29 Crores indicating companies investment.  Negative sign indicates outflow of cash.  

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Also,  If we see the trend in Ratios,  all are on increasing trend.  Check following ratios for your references.  Trend in ROE, ROA,  ROCE and interest cover.  And you will observe how this company is fairing well in all parameters. About this ratios,  we will cover separately about the importance of it.  I am not giving this ratios here to spoon feed readers.  Most of the screenshots are presented here.  For remaining,  terms are mentioned,  investors just needs to take efforts to check those trends by either manually calculating or any websites giving readymade data.  

Remember,  Learn to Fish yourself.  That's the key to be successful investor 

Happy Investing 💸💸💸💸💸💸💸

Latest Theme - Transformers in demand

There is a sudden spike in demand for Transformers.  Expecting all Transformer companies to deliver awesome results this Quarter on account of this sudden jump in Order books of all Transformer manufacturers.  Order book value is at all time high for few.

Companies to look for
1) TRIL (31.75₹) sleeping tiger
2) IMP Power (105₹) already big Breakout
3) Bharat Bijlee (1000₹) sleeping tiger
4) Voltamp (1148.05₹)


Short term traders can look at Bharat Bijlee and TRIL


Investors can look at Voltamp.  Voltamp right now is at sweet spot and very small downside potential from here, as it's on strong 200Moving Average Support.
Fundamentally it has decent ratios among its peers.  Top of it,  Voltamp is debt free. For order books,  Highest beneficiaries are Bharat Bijlee and TRIL.  Voltamp may show subdued results this FY2018. Hence its low momentum in share price makes it unattractive for traders too. 

BGR Energy - A value buy

After Panic selling in market,  many investors are looking for value buy like HEG,  Graphite,  HFCL , etc.  I personally bought BGR energy at 132.30 today



I found this stock to be at demand zone, good price according to me and this years order book have rose 10 times compared to previous year,  hoping to reap benefits by March 18 results


Happy Investing 

Aug 2017 Trade updates

During the panic selling ,  it was difficult to see bullish stocks and we had selected ITC and Tech M with decent risk reward. Fortunately ,  even after panic selling continuation,  Both SL stayed safe and Tech M achieved it's target,  while ITC gave 13 points.  Even bad news for ITC couldn't drag it much down.  It just gave a jerk.


Following is the link for Trade idea A

https://jttime.blogspot.in/2017/08/aug-2017-trade-ideas-a.html?m=1

Fresh idea

One can look to buy CARE rating,  which is beaten down to its demand zone and around 200MA.

Updates for Nifty View

After a pullback which gave a good relief rally,  we were anticipating it as a short relief and expecting 9930 as resistance,  Nifty couldn't sustain above 9930 for long and made high of around 9940 and still consolidating.  As for expected it was not a bull back but just a pullback.  Our stand will still remain bullish above 9930 & below 9600, we may turn bearish for medium term period. So our view is still intact.

Following is the link for Nifty View August Expiry

https://jttime.blogspot.in/2017/08/august-nifty-view-b.html?m=1

This pullback relief was anticipated just 1 day before Nifty started upwards journey, but ultimately it's just a speculation which went right this time again and nobody can Predict Market.



Happy Trading 📈📈

August Nifty View - B

Nifty on Support

After the panic selling in Nifty, many articles coming in to prove as Nifty is on support or major global incides on Support. Lets look at exactly what is this 61.8% support by illustrations and various other supports

Blue dotted lines are various Fibboncci retracement levels, for which most of the analysts considers calculating from Jun Low to August High. 61.8% is called as golden ratio and therefore its generally accepted that Nifty will bounce back from current levels and buying can resume. Also, previous resistance which Nifty broke with decent volumes has now become support for which few analysts can also term it as trendline support. We have also witnessed sharp recoveries near end of market hours in back to back last 2 trading sessions. After looking at FIIs figures, it looked like it was a short covering.
Interestingly, Nifty earlier closed at 23.6%, expecting a bounce back, but it opened with a gap down and sell off continued. Next to that day, Nifty opened at 38.2% Retracement levels and closed at 50% retracement levels giving a hope to traders with long position that now it will bounce back. Now, its a new ratio which is also a golden ratio creating hopes for the traders with a long positon.

Moving Average:

Nifty has been consistently taking support on Moving average lines of 20 MA and in the Month of June, it broke that support temporarily and after long, tested 50MA Support. But in recent sell off, Nifty broke that support too and even went below Lower band of Bollinger. This indicates that sell off is not yet over and may test 100MA soon. For time being as all global sentiments have turned positive, even SGX was green in last trading sessions, and most importantly, Nifty on Golden ratio of retracement levels of the latest Rally, it may be give a pullback, which should not be considered as bull back immediately. It is only after Nifty crosses and sustains above previous rally resistance of 9930, we must keep patience for any fresh longs. Till then, its a sell on rise market.


RSI at 36.30 facing southwards is also a worry for market.

Aug 2017 - Trade Ideas A

FINDING BUYING OPPORTUNITIES IN MASSIVE SELLING 

Sellers were highly active today but in the last 30 minutes,  massive buying observed which took Nifty from low of 9803.55 to 9878. Volumes suggests last hour spike can be sustainable and can be considered Short covering.  Even FIIs data suggests,  FIIs bought net index Futures and Stock Futures,  which actually happened in last 30 minutes.  With such panic selling,  one may consider to take short positions,  but for traders who always look for buying opportunities in the market or value buying might be either panic or might be thinking to value buy in such market.  My personal suggestion to such investor would be to analyze results before jumping in to any decision.  One such example is Tata Motors,  where many investors considered it as a value buy as it has come near 52 week low,  but after going through results,  one should understand that profit jump that one can see on their P&L statement is due to one time gain and not due to their regular business.  Even Tata Steel sold their holdings in Tata Motors which suggests its not a value buy still.  

Now for traders comfortable with long side in FO

1) 

Even in today's panic selling,  IT sector looked like strongly holding its stand and in that too particularly I expect Tech Mahindra to perform better among its peers.  Even open low was same today. 

Buy Tech Mahindra 

Prev close 404

Target 435

SL 392

2)

Another stock that is beaten down badly due to negative news &  came on strong support is ITC.  It's on 200MA and showed good strength even in today's massive fall.  Risk reward ratio also looks good

Buy ITC 

Prev close 273

Target 295

SL 268